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China said it would raise tariffs on $60 billion of US imports to as high as 25% from June 1, in response to US tariff threats on a further $325 billion of Chinese goods. State media suggested China could halt purchases of US agricultural products and energy, and the offshore yuan neared a decade low against the dollar.
A possible halt in Chinese purchases of US farm products would remove a major export outlet for soybeans and corn, and the weaker yuan further discourages imports, pointing to lower US feed grain and soybean prices.
dailycallernewsfoundation.orgShelby TalcottMay 30, 2019
forex.comMatt Weller CFA, CMTMay 13, 2019forex.comMatt Weller CFA, CMTMay 13, 2019After 803 past bearish trade events, SOY moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 683 past bearish trade events, CORN moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 384 past bearish trade events, SBM moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
China's tariff retaliation and state media hints at halting US agricultural and energy purchases pushed USDCNH toward decade highs on the same day, driving risk-off yuan selling.
China's tariff retaliation on $60B of US goods and hints at halting US ag purchases hit soy complex demand expectations on 2019-05-13, a direct trade-flow and sentiment driver.
China's May 13 tariff retaliation and talk of halting US farm purchases escalated the trade war, hitting soy complex sentiment and demand expectations.
China's tariff retaliation and talk of halting US farm purchases drove trade-war sentiment and soybean volatility around May 13.
