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A PIIE analysis says China has reached only 53% of its Phase 1 purchase target through September 2020, and Chinese imports of US goods are below pre-trade-war levels. Some US exports, including pork, accelerated in 2020.
Shortfall against the purchase commitment raises doubt about sustained Chinese demand for US farm products, a modest bearish risk for US soy and corn.
piie.comOct 27, 2020After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 28 past neutral trade events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -2.2% to +0.7%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
