China's 'market condition' caveat on U.S. ag purchases adds to trade deal doubts

After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Dec 23, 2021China to fall short on promises to U.S. as trade deal ends-0.1%
• Feb 8, 2022U.S. December trade data reveals massive shortfall in China's 'Phase 1' purchases-0.7%
• Sep 25, 2025US-Argentine Deal Adds to Farm Groups' Frustration Over Lack of Chinese Purchases+0.4%
• Oct 27, 2020Trump's phase one trade deal with China and the US election | PIIE-3.4%
• Apr 25, 2026Trump Administration Adjusts China Soybean Purchase Deadline as Officials Clarify Timeline Confusion | MarketSpy+2.1%

After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.

• Dec 23, 2021China to fall short on promises to U.S. as trade deal ends-0.7%
• Apr 25, 2023China's move to cancel US corn purchases leaves Asian traders in split-2.4%
• Feb 8, 2022U.S. December trade data reveals massive shortfall in China's 'Phase 1' purchases+1.9%
• Oct 27, 2020Trump's phase one trade deal with China and the US election | PIIE-3.7%
• Jun 1, 2026Explainer: What do China's new US farm purchases mean for global trade?-5.5%

After 375 past bearish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and -0.1% over 20.

• Oct 9, 2026China Needs $1.2B/Week in U.S. Ag Buys to Hit Trade Deal — Agribusiness Wire+4.0%
• Oct 26, 2026Cash market update: Wheat falls on rising supply despite Black Sea risks as China’s US soybean purchases near 70% of its commitment - Fastmarkets-0.4%
• Mar 16, 2026CRMAgri - Latest - Soybeans hit limit down on US/ China trade doubts-2.8%
• Jul 9, 2018As Tariffs Bite, China Cancels U.S. Soy Deals and Hunt Is on for New Export Markets-1.9%
• Apr 24, 2023US corn falls after China cancels purchases; drags wheat, soy lower-8.3%