U.S. December trade data reveals massive shortfall in China's 'Phase 1' purchases

After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Dec 23, 2021China to fall short on promises to U.S. as trade deal ends-0.1%
• Jan 16, 2020China's 'market condition' caveat on U.S. ag purchases adds to trade deal doubts-2.1%
• Feb 9, 2022Plunge in U.S. soy exports to China in 2021 exposes Phase 1 flaws | Reuters-1.1%
• Aug 23, 2019Trade war: US official says China far short of soybean purchase pledge+0.0%
• Nov 30, 2018U.S. Ag Sales to China to Fall by 45% in Trade War+3.3%

After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.

• Dec 23, 2021China to fall short on promises to U.S. as trade deal ends-0.7%
• Jan 16, 2020China's 'market condition' caveat on U.S. ag purchases adds to trade deal doubts+0.7%
• Apr 25, 2023China's move to cancel US corn purchases leaves Asian traders in split-2.4%
• Jun 1, 2026Explainer: What do China's new US farm purchases mean for global trade?-5.5%
• Jun 9, 2025China May trade data: exports rise after tariff ceasefire-1.7%