
China's May 2025 customs data showed overall exports up 4.8% year on year in dollar terms, below the roughly 5% expected, while exports to the U.S. plunged 34.5%, the sharpest drop since February 2020. Imports fell 3.4%, far worse than the 0.9% decline economists expected.
Weak Chinese imports and the sharp drop in U.S.-bound trade point to softer demand for U.S. farm goods during the trade dispute, though analysts expect the tariff truce to show up in June data.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.