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About half of US soybean output shipped to China in 2023, worth $15.2 billion, but Chinese buyers have shifted to Brazil and the US share of China's soybean imports fell to 18% this year. US corn exports to China have also lost ground to Brazil since 2022.
Trump's tariff threat puts a large share of US soybean and corn export demand at risk, and continued diversion to Brazil weakens the US export basis and futures prices.
reuters.comMei Mei ChuNov 7, 2024After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
