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Trump's proposed blanket tariffs and higher China tariffs are expected to prompt retaliation similar to 2018-2019. The National Corn Growers Association and American Soybean Association project US soybean exports could fall about 52% and corn exports about 84% if China retaliates in kind.
Projected large drops in US corn and soybean exports to China would weigh heavily on US futures and basis levels if tariffs are imposed, raising feed grain and meal supply pressure.
rollcall.comOlivia M. BridgesNov 14, 2024After 683 past bearish trade events, CORN moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 803 past bearish trade events, SOY moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
