ExportPlanning - US-China Phase One Deal: Tracking Progress H1-2021

After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Oct 27, 2020Trump's phase one trade deal with China and the US election | PIIE-3.4%
• Feb 9, 2022Plunge in U.S. soy exports to China in 2021 exposes Phase 1 flaws | Reuters-1.1%
• Dec 23, 2021China to fall short on promises to U.S. as trade deal ends-0.1%
• May 29, 2019Local ports see 'dramatic hit' to soybean exports during US-China trade war+3.0%
• Jul 26, 2021Protein pinch: China's soybean imports to slow over rest of 2021 on curbed meal use+1.0%

After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.

• Oct 27, 2020Trump's phase one trade deal with China and the US election | PIIE-3.7%
• Sep 1, 2021China’s bumper harvest may cool corn-buying binge, impact progress of US trade deal | South China Morning Post-5.3%
• Dec 23, 2021China to fall short on promises to U.S. as trade deal ends-0.7%
• Feb 8, 2024US farm exports hit three-year low in 2023 as China slows buying-1.4%
• May 14, 2025U.S. soybean exports risk 20% drop without improved China deal+3.8%

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.