U.S. soybean exports risk 20% drop without improved China deal

After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Aug 1, 2025China’s soybean meal stockpiles rise, US soybean imports in doubt+1.0%
• Jun 9, 2025Decline of China's Soybean Meal Market Amid Rising Imports+1.2%
• Aug 1, 2018Why China’s pork producers can survive without US soybean imports | South China Morning Post-1.6%
• Jan 25, 2019China's 2018 soybean imports from U.S. hit lowest since 2008-0.1%
• Jul 26, 2021Protein pinch: China's soybean imports to slow over rest of 2021 on curbed meal use+1.0%

After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.

• Sep 13, 2024Weathering the Storm: U.S. Corn Exports Drop as China Shifts Import Strategy+2.9%
• Nov 1, 2018China slashed its imports of U.S. sorghum, soybean, and corn in September+3.6%
• Dec 1, 2020China Targets U.S. Farm Imports With Tariffs | Feed & Grain-0.4%
• May 28, 2025China halted U.S. soybean & corn imports before Trump tariff war – China Environment News-2.1%
• Jul 16, 2021Gro Expects Drop in China Pork Imports and Lower Corn Feed Use-0.1%