
The US-China trade deal ends the suspension of soybean imports and commits China to buy 12 million metric tons of US soybeans in the last two months of 2025 and at least 25 million tons annually through 2028. The article notes near-zero US exports to China over six months amid retaliatory measures.
Even if met, 2025 US sales to China would be about 33% below 2024.
Committed Chinese purchases restore a major export outlet for US soybeans, but volumes remain below 2024 levels, leaving Brazil and Argentina competitive in global trade.
After 696 past bullish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.9%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 224 past neutral trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.2%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.