Chicago soybean futures pared early gains on Wednesday after a surge the previous day on hopes of renewed Chinese purchases. Beijing reportedly offered major processors tariff waivers covering up to 10 million tonnes of U.S. soybeans, but traders said U.S. prices remained too high to trigger immediate buying.
Tariff waivers raise the prospect of Chinese demand for U.S. beans, which supports soybean prices, but high U.S. prices and weak Chinese soymeal demand from African swine fever limit the upside.
After 696 past bullish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.9%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 224 past neutral trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.2%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.