
Chinese analysts expect China to keep buying US soybeans to cover shortages in the fourth quarter and early next year, even as state importers were ordered to halt some US farm purchases. Commercial purchases are exempt, and crushers need at least 20 million tonnes, with Brazilian supply tight.
Expected commercial demand for US soybeans in the seasonal peak supports US soybean prices and export flows, while Brazilian supply concerns keep premiums firm.
After 696 past bullish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.9%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 224 past neutral trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.2%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.