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Bunge CEO Soren Schroder said on May 16 that the company will export U.S. soybeans to Argentina only if margins justify it, with some flows possible in late summer and fall. He estimated 7 to 8 million tonnes of Argentine crush capacity will be unavailable this year because of the crop shortfall, creating a crush margin dislocation.
Schroder said the flows will not be large enough to change global crush margin structure.
Argentina's crop shortfall is shifting crush demand to Brazil, the US and Europe, which supports crush margins and soybean demand. Limited US exports to Argentina mean the impact on US soybean prices is modest.
world-grain.comEric SchroederMay 17, 2018After 696 past bullish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.9%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 342 past bullish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.1% to +2.6%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 224 past bullish trade events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
