
CIARA, the Argentine oilseed crushers' chamber, projects soybean crushing will fall to 33 million tonnes this year from 45 million last year. Soybean exports could reach a record 16 million tonnes, 98% destined for China.
The government's removal of the tax gap between soybean and meal/oil exports is partly behind the shift.
More Argentine beans shipped whole to China means less meal and oil produced, tightening export supply of soymeal and soyoil while supporting soybean prices.
After 696 past bullish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.9%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 342 past bullish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.1% to +2.6%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 224 past bullish trade events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.