
Argentine soybean crushing remains active despite lower domestic soybean output, with second-quarter volumes estimated at 11.8 million tons, up 4% year on year. Soybean oil exports hit a record 742,000 tons in June, supported by demand from India and Nepal.
First-half exports still totaled 3.22 million tons, down 3%.
Higher crush and record oil exports tighten the soybean oil export balance and support prices, while the extra crush adds meal supply that weighs on soybean meal. Strong palm oil demand from biodiesel producers may push importers toward Argentine oil in the third quarter.
After 224 past bullish trade events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 384 past bearish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.