A Chinese mission is inspecting Argentine soybean meal plants to approve exports to China. Argentina is the largest soymeal exporter with over 65 million tons of crushing capacity, and the industry expects record crushing this year.
China is shifting soybean purchases toward Mercosur because of the US trade war and African swine fever.
Possible Chinese approval of Argentine meal would expand export options and add supply to world soymeal markets, weighing on meal prices while China's lower hog output trims overall feed demand.
After 384 past bearish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 123 past bearish trade events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -2.9% to +2.0%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.