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US soybean exports to China have declined for years as Brazil has grown its share, and Argentina's bumper 2024 crop adds competition. Argentine beans are expected to replace some US cargoes in the fourth quarter.
Chicago soybean futures had fallen almost 10% in 2024.
Losing Chinese market share to Argentina and Brazil reduces export demand for US soybeans and adds downward pressure on CBOT soybean futures.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.