
China's agriculture ministry forecast soybean imports for 2018/19 to dip 0.3 percent to 95.65 million tonnes, the first decline in 15 years. The trade dispute with the U.S. is pushing Chinese pig farmers to seek cheaper protein alternatives.
Lower Chinese soybean imports reduce global demand for soybeans and soybean meal, which is bearish for prices. Brazil, the top exporter, faces the greatest pressure from the forecast.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 384 past bearish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.