
China's soybean imports in the first quarter are expected to fall about a fifth year on year to around 18.5 million tons, the smallest first-quarter total since 2020, after record slaughter shrank pig herds. CBOT soybeans are trading at a more than two-year low after a 15% slump last year.
Weaker Chinese crush demand tied to a shrinking hog herd, ahead of a South American harvest glut, points to continued downward pressure on soybean and soymeal prices.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 384 past bearish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.