
Argentina's raw soybean exports to China reached a six-year high, leaving local crushers short of beans. Idle capacity at national crushing plants climbed above 30%, and industry leaders warned of job losses and weaker export value.
Crusher shortages cut domestic meal and oil production, which tightens those supplies, while strong raw bean exports leave less bean supply for processing. The overall effect favors meal and oil over whole beans.
After 342 past bullish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.1% to +2.6%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 224 past bullish trade events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.