
Argentine farmers' soybean sales to commercial buyers stalled in June, falling 45% from May to about 3.8 million metric tons, according to the CIARA-CEC crushing chamber. Farmers held back stocks as the informal exchange rate diverged sharply from the official rate, penalizing exporters who sell at the official rate.
Reduced Argentine soybean supplies to crushers point to lower soyoil and soymeal exports, which tightens global meal supply and supports meal prices. Hoarding by farmers keeps physical availability low in the near term.
After 696 past bullish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.9%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 342 past bullish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.1% to +2.6%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 224 past bullish trade events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.