
Argentine producers had sold 69.99% of the 2021/22 soybean harvest by mid-October, slightly ahead of last year. Weekly sales plunged to 55,000 tonnes after the preferential exchange rate ended, against about 1.1 million tonnes weekly in September.
Corn sales and wheat sales were also reported, and Argentine corn planting area is the lowest in six years due to drought and frost.
Sharp slowdown in farmer selling reduces near-term Argentine soy and corn export supply, while a smaller 2022/23 corn area supports corn prices.
After 696 past bullish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.9%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 729 past bullish trade events, Corn moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.8%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 206 past neutral trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.6%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.