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China announced a 25% retaliatory tariff, effective July 6, on $34 billion of U.S. goods including soybeans, pork, seafood and automobiles. The move mirrors the U.S. Trade Representative's tariff on 818 Chinese imports worth about $34 billion.
Retaliatory duties on U.S. soybeans and pork threaten Chinese demand for U.S. feed ingredients, which is bearish for soybeans and meal, and could also weigh on hog demand.
cnbc.comEvelyn ChengJun 15, 2018After 803 past bearish trade events, SOY moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 384 past bearish trade events, SBM moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 123 past bearish trade events, HOGS moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -2.9% to +2.0%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
China's retaliatory 25% tariff on US soybeans was announced June 15 and was anticipated beforehand, so fear of it weighed on prices, but the timing lies just after the window.
