
China's soymeal prices rose from February 7 and nearly reached 5,000 yuan per ton on March 18, with crushers curbing output from Tianjin to Guangdong. Soybean arrivals from South America fell short of expected volumes due to drought in Brazil and Argentina.
The National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration announced a soybean reserve release on February 22, but without quantities or timing, and prices kept rising.
Short South American shipments and crusher cutbacks are tightening China's protein meal supply, supporting global soymeal and soybean prices. Higher meal costs pressure Chinese pig margins and could reduce future feed demand.
After 342 past bullish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.1% to +2.6%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 696 past bullish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.9%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 123 past bearish trade events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -2.9% to +2.0%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.