
The US is on track to set a record for soybean exports in the 2020-21 marketing year ending August 31, with USDA projections at 2.26 billion bushels. USSEC officials said global demand surprised the industry despite COVID-19 shipping disruptions and container shortages.
Record export pace tightens old-crop soybean supplies and supports prices and farm profitability. Strong demand despite logistics constraints suggests continued firmness in soybean meal and oil feed input costs.
After 696 past bullish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.9%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 342 past bullish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.1% to +2.6%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.