Animal feed compounders are substituting cheaper soybean meal for DDGS, which has become more expensive as ethanol production falls. Reuters reports that China is importing less soymeal, leaving extra supply that is pushing soymeal prices down and improving feed margins.
The shift follows the ongoing trade war with China.
Soymeal oversupply lowers feed costs and supports demand for it, while the reduced DDGS availability keeps DDGS prices firm.
After 384 past bearish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.