
US soybeans harvested in 2017 had protein content of 34.1%, tied for the lowest since measurement began in 1986, after poor Midwest weather. Brazilian soybeans, typically around 37% protein, are gaining a quality premium as exporters expand capacity and sell more to China.
Lower US protein weakens its competitiveness for feed buyers in China, potentially eroding export demand for US soybeans and meal while supporting Brazilian export prices.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 384 past bearish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.