
China sought to calm a deteriorating trade relationship with the US as Washington prepared a possible Section 301 investigation into alleged intellectual property violations. Beijing said it values intellectual property and wants cooperation, while sources said China has singled out soybean imports as a possible lever in retaliation.
Soybeans are the most exposed US farm export to China, so any tit-for-tat measure targeting soy imports would pressure US soybean prices. Analysts expect China to respond cautiously and proportionally.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 384 past bearish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.