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Trump's trade war with China is shifting how US soybeans and corn move within the country. Traders are diverting Pacific Northwest soybean supply to Gulf of Mexico ports for shipment to other destinations, and some elevators are shipping more corn to free space for soybeans.
The bumper crop is also raising storage needs.
Rerouted soybean flows raise freight and basis costs for the Pacific Northwest and boost Gulf demand, while the larger storage need adds pressure on cash soybean prices.
bloomberg.comIsis AlmeidaNov 1, 2018After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 480 past neutral trade events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
