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Trump's tweets on China tariffs sent the VIX up as much as 46% and pushed S&P 500 futures down 1.5%. The Shanghai Composite fell 5.6% as markets that had been calm were jolted by the threat of a trade escalation.
Equity and volatility shocks tied to tariff threats increase the chance of weaker Chinese demand and lower risk appetite, which typically weighs on agricultural futures.
fortune.comJoanna Ossinger, Michael Patterson, BloombergMay 6, 2019After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 80 past bearish trade events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.2% over 5 sessions (30% higher; middle half -6.9% to +0.8%), and -1.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
