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Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch warned that Trump's protectionist trade moves could hit global commodity demand. The bank said oil prices in local currencies are near 2014 levels and emerging-market demand could suffer.
Trump withdrew the US from the Trans-Pacific Partnership on his first working day.
A sharp fall in trade would reduce energy and commodity demand, pressuring crude and related feed input prices. Trade policy uncertainty adds volatility to grain and oilseed export flows.
financialpost.comJesse SnyderJan 23, 2017After 80 past bearish trade events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.2% over 5 sessions (30% higher; middle half -6.9% to +0.8%), and -1.5% over 20.
After 56 past bearish trade events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -5.6% over 5 sessions (20% higher; middle half -9.0% to -1.7%), and -4.5% over 20.
After 101 past trade events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (35% higher; middle half -0.8% to +0.3%), and -0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
