
US crude fell 5.5% to $53.50 a barrel and Brent fell 3.6% to $64.47 on Friday. The moves followed Trump's threat of escalating tariffs on Mexican imports, which begin at 5% on June 10 and could reach 25% by October.
Mexico had not yet said whether it would retaliate.
Tariffs could raise costs for US refiners that import Mexican crude and weigh on global growth, so demand expectations fall and prices decline.
After 80 past bearish trade events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.2% over 5 sessions (30% higher; middle half -6.9% to +0.8%), and -1.5% over 20.
After 56 past bearish trade events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -5.6% over 5 sessions (20% higher; middle half -9.0% to -1.7%), and -4.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
May 31 slump in US crude and Brent on tariff threat set the bearish momentum and sentiment for the following trading day.