
Oil fell over 3% on Friday and posted its biggest monthly drop in six months after President Trump threatened tariffs on Mexico, a major US trade partner and crude supplier. The plan would start at 5% on June 10 and rise monthly to 25% by October 1.
Mexico had not said whether it would retaliate.
Tariffs could disrupt the cross-border crude trade, since US refiners import about 680,000 barrels per day of Mexican crude, and they add to recession fears that weigh on demand. Both contracts are pressured lower.
After 80 past bearish trade events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.2% over 5 sessions (30% higher; middle half -6.9% to +0.8%), and -1.5% over 20.
After 56 past bearish trade events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -5.6% over 5 sessions (20% higher; middle half -9.0% to -1.7%), and -4.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Trump's Mexico tariff threat on May 31 triggered a >3% fall and the biggest monthly drop, hitting demand expectations right inside the 5-day window.
Trump's May 31 Mexico tariff threat triggered the selloff that carried into the June 3 session, with the escalating tariff schedule hitting demand sentiment.