
WTI settled down 0.6% at $58.81 a barrel on Wednesday after touching a session low of $56.88. China signaled it was ready to use its dominance in rare earths to retaliate in the US trade war, and equities fell.
Escalating US-China trade tensions threaten global oil demand and push investors out of risk assets. OPEC output cuts and Middle East tensions provided only partial support.
After 80 past bearish trade events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.2% over 5 sessions (30% higher; middle half -6.9% to +0.8%), and -1.5% over 20.
After 56 past bearish trade events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -5.6% over 5 sessions (20% higher; middle half -9.0% to -1.7%), and -4.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
China's rare-earths retaliation threat and falling equities on May 29 added to trade-war pressure carried into May 30, though the move that day was small.
On May 29 trade war worries and a China rare-earths retaliation threat weighed on prices and equities despite supply disruptions.