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Brent crude slid into bear-market territory, down more than 20% from its late-April peak, after ending Monday down 1.5%. The decline was driven by the U.S.-China trade dispute, which investors feared could expand into a currency war and damage crude demand.
A bear market signals sustained demand destruction fears from the trade dispute, pressuring crude and energy-linked feedstock prices, while a currency war could also shift grain and oilseed trade flows.
bloomberg.comAlex NussbaumAug 5, 2019After 56 past bearish trade events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -5.6% over 5 sessions (20% higher; middle half -9.0% to -1.7%), and -4.5% over 20.
After 80 past bearish trade events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.2% over 5 sessions (30% higher; middle half -6.9% to +0.8%), and -1.5% over 20.
After 40 past bullish trade events, Chinese Yuan (CNY per USD) moved a median +0.6% over 5 sessions (75% higher; middle half +0.0% to +1.4%), and +1.1% over 20.
After 45 past bullish trade events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.4%), and -0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Brent entered a bear market on Aug 5 as trade and currency-war fears fed demand worries.
