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Lombard Odier revised its FX forecasts after the US announced 10% tariffs on the remaining $300 billion of Chinese goods. China responded by halting purchases of US agricultural products, and USDCNY rose above 7.00 as the US labeled China a currency manipulator.
Halting US farm purchases removes a major export outlet for soybeans and related products, which is bearish for soybean prices. The currency move also raises the risk of a wider trade fallout.
lombardodier.comVasileios Gkionakis, PhDAug 7, 2019After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 40 past bullish trade events, Chinese Yuan (CNY per USD) moved a median +0.6% over 5 sessions (75% higher; middle half +0.0% to +1.4%), and +1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The tariff escalation, China's halt of US agricultural purchases and the manipulator label pushed USDCNY above 7.00.
