
WTI crude erased early gains and was set to finish the week lower after China said it would retaliate with tariffs of 5% to 10% on another $75 billion of US goods. Traders awaited Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech, with rate-cut expectations central to the outlook.
Escalating US-China tariffs threaten agricultural export demand, including soybeans and pork, which weighs on US farm commodity prices.
After 80 past bearish trade events, WTI moved a median -2.2% over 5 sessions (30% higher; middle half -6.9% to +0.8%), and -1.5% over 20.
After 803 past bearish trade events, SOY moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.