
Oil settled at a four-year low as investors priced in a greater recession risk from the escalating US-China trade war. Brent settled at $62.82 and WTI at $59.58.
Recession-driven crude weakness lowers energy and biofuel feedstock values, pressuring vegetable oil and feed-related prices.
After 56 past bearish trade events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -5.6% over 5 sessions (20% higher; middle half -9.0% to -1.7%), and -4.5% over 20.
After 80 past bearish trade events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.2% over 5 sessions (30% higher; middle half -6.9% to +0.8%), and -1.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Oil settled at a four-year low on April 8 on US-China escalation, but the date is after the window end and it only partly overlaps.