
Dry freight trading was sluggish in the week of June 18 as trade war fears over new US tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods weighed on sentiment. Capesize July contracts fell to $15,100 before recovering to $16,375 after short covering.
Weaker expected Chinese demand for iron ore and coal lowers capesize freight expectations, while trade tensions reduce expected grain and soybean flows to China. Freight is therefore pressured on the trade-war outlook.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.