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China says U.S. farmers may never regain the soybean market share they lost in the trade war. China is buying more soybeans from other countries, promoting livestock feed alternatives to soy, and pushing farmers to plant more domestic crops.
Before the dispute, China had been on track to import 300 million tons of soybeans from the United States this year.
Structural shifts in Chinese sourcing and feed formulations could permanently reduce U.S. soybean export demand. Alternative feed use would also cut soymeal demand over time.
politico.comHe Huifeng, South China Morning PostAug 11, 2018After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 384 past bearish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
