
Tanker-tracking data from ClipperData showed Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE exported at or near records through the end of 2016. These three countries pledged combined cuts of 756,000 bpd from October levels.
Heavy exports ahead of cuts keep near-term supply high, which is bearish for crude until the three producers actually reduce exports.
After 80 past bearish trade events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.2% over 5 sessions (30% higher; middle half -6.9% to +0.8%), and -1.5% over 20.
After 56 past bearish trade events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -5.6% over 5 sessions (20% higher; middle half -9.0% to -1.7%), and -4.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.