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Grain markets were mixed in the week to mid-November, with soybeans rising while corn and canola fell, and HRS and HRW wheat declining while SRW wheat and oats gained. Attention centered on hopes of a US-China trade war resolution ahead of the G20 summit, a record US soybean crush, and North American and South American weather outlooks.
Prospects for an easing of US-China tariffs support soybean demand and prices, while favorable South American weather weighs on the market. Cash prices are being driven more by global trade flows than local conditions.
realagriculture.comBrennan TurnerNov 17, 2018After 696 past bullish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.9%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 82 past bearish trade events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.8% to +1.9%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 206 past neutral trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.6%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
