Russia is storing a record amount of wheat, with stockpiles up 22% year on year to an all-time high of 33.8 million tonnes, as its export program lags a large crop. Wheat and oilseed markets were modestly lower, with the dollar strong and global supplies heavy.
Large Russian stocks that cannot be exported quickly add pressure on world wheat prices and reduce feed wheat premiums in import markets.
After 375 past bearish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 82 past bearish trade events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.8% to +1.9%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Record Russian wheat stockpiles and heavy global supplies combined with a strong dollar weighed on the market (supply and currency).