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Speakers at a Black Sea price-drivers conference said 2020-21 is a year of shifting grain trade flows, with Australia's wheat crop larger than expected and Europe needing imports. Australian wheat was estimated by ABARES at 31.2 million tonnes, with some expecting 35 million.
Yields in Western Australia were significantly better than expected.
A bigger Australian crop competing with Black Sea supplies for export business could cap wheat export prices and reshape which origins win Asian and European tenders.
world-grain.comChris LyddonJan 29, 2021After 375 past bearish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 82 past bearish trade events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.8% to +1.9%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
