S&P Global Platts analyst Karim El Afany said at the Middle East Grains & Oils Congress that the Black Sea has become the third-largest wheat producing region and the fifth-largest corn producer. Russia remains the top wheat exporter, though its exports are down 5% this season, while Ukraine has record production and exports.
A growing Black Sea share of world grain supply increases competition for export tenders, which weighs on wheat and corn prices. Russia's reduced Egyptian tender share shows how that competition is shifting trade flows.
After 375 past bearish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.