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Russia is set to export a post-Soviet record 56% of its 2023-24 wheat crop, up from a five-year average of 48%. The US is seen exporting just 39% of its wheat crop versus an average of 50%, reflecting its loss of global market share.
Heavier Russian export availability adds supply to world wheat markets while US export share shrinks, which weighs on wheat prices and feed-grain alternatives.
After 375 past bearish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.