U.S.-China trade war 2.0: What are the implications for global oilseed markets?

After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.

• May 14, 2019US-China trade stand-off and implications for FX markets | Lombard Odier+5.2%
• Aug 1, 2018Why Soybeans Are at the Heart of the U.S.-China Trade War-1.6%
• Aug 27, 2019Forex markets: US-China trade tensions in focus+0.3%
• Aug 8, 2019US-China trade war: Soybean farmers are working new markets+1.4%
• Mar 14, 2019Why U.S. growers are betting the farm on soybeans amid China trade war+1.9%

After 224 past neutral trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.2%), and -0.2% over 20.

• Oct 30, 2019Soybean Prices are a Proxy for How the Trade War is Going - Global Trade Magazine-0.1%
• Nov 23, 2020China crushers wash out US soybeans amid tight margins: trade - Fastmarkets-0.4%
• Aug 28, 2025What Role Do Farm Products Have in U.S.-China Trade Deal?-5.5%
• Nov 12, 2018U.S. soybean farmers hang on for dear life in Trump's China trade war+1.7%
• Nov 14, 2025U.S.–China Soybean Deal: Comparing Past Export Levels and Global Market Impacts - Center for Commercial Agriculture-3.4%

After 81 past neutral trade events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Dec 1, 2017China Boosts U.S. Corn Imports and Good Time for Farm Bill Negotiations - AG INFORMATION NETWORK OF THE WEST-1.5%
• Feb 21, 2025China’s Canadian canola probe consolidates a trade war – Pinnacle Petal-1.2%
• Dec 17, 2019Brazilian soymeal headed for China | The Poultry Site+1.9%
• Apr 27, 2021Black Sea oilseeds: surging prices – where is the psychological limit?+2.7%
• Jul 18, 2018Soymeal Market Remains Calm in China Despite Tariffs+1.8%