
Chinese negotiator Li Chenggang is visiting Washington for talks on agricultural tariffs and a possible broader trade deal. China is the largest market for US farm goods, buying $29.25 billion last year, and US soybean sales to China are frozen by Chinese tariffs.
Trump has urged China to quadruple soybean purchases, and the 2020 Phase 1 purchase commitments went unfulfilled.
A deal restoring Chinese soybean purchases would lift US soybean demand and prices, while failure keeps US exports stranded and supports Brazilian market share.
After 250 past neutral trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 224 past neutral trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.2%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.