
Oil prices settled slightly lower on April 4 after China proposed a broad range of tariffs on US exports in response to a planned US levy on $50 billion of Chinese goods. A surprise 4.6 million barrel draw in US crude stockpiles pared losses, with Brent settling at $68.02 and WTI at $63.37.
Proposed Chinese duties on a broad set of US imports threaten US agricultural export demand, while the inventory draw signals tighter domestic crude supply that partly offset trade-driven weakness.
After 12 past neutral trade events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.2% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -3.6% to +0.9%), and +1.2% over 20.
After 12 past neutral trade events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +2.3% over 5 sessions (75% higher; middle half +0.2% to +4.6%), and +4.7% over 20.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.