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An R Street Institute commentary argues that the US has stepped back from trade liberalization under Trump and Biden, leaving farmers exposed to retaliatory tariffs. It highlights the TPP withdrawal and steel tariffs that triggered agricultural retaliation.
Persistent trade barriers and retaliation risk reduce US farm export competitiveness, a long-run bearish factor for US grain and oilseed prices.
rstreet.orgNov 1, 2021After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 375 past bearish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
